Brokered Convention a Media Myth

1952 - No Rachel Maddow

The last national Republican Party Convention where the outcome was in doubt was 1976 when then former Governor Ronald Reagan pushed President Gerald Ford to the last few delegates before losing on the first ballot, 1,187 delegates to 1,070. Ford graciously allowed Reagan to address the Convention and lived to regret it. Reagan gave a great off-the-cuff speech which made those who voted for Ford regret their vote.

Prior to that, the last Republican Party Convention which went past the first ballot was in 1952 when Dwight Eisenhower defeated Ohio Senator Robert Taft after delegates were allowed to switch their votes. There were five candidates on the ballot.

In 1952, there were few primaries. In 1976, late primaries got Reagan back into the game when the Gipper started hitting Ford on foreign policy and social issues which played in many southern states.

Talk of a brokered convention in Tampa this summer is the latest parlor game by the insiders who make their living over talking about such possibilities. But the new rules governing primaries makes a deadlocked convention less likely. Even if someone was flattered into taking the nomination from scratch, from the floor of the hall, it would be a one-way ticket to political oblivion for the Republican Party.  With the exception of former Gov. Jeb Bush, and even that is a stretch, it would be practically impossible to pull together a national campaign in late August, raise a $100 million, introduce the candidate and run and winning campaign.

Presidential campaigns are like Broadway shows. You have to find the right cast, keep your backers happy, talk up the show with critics, take it the road to iron out the bugs and hope and pray you don't close after one night. Then you have to go a out and do it all over again, day and night - with an occasional matinee. Maybe someone in the cast will get a Tony.

Mitt Romney has to decide whether he is willing to have a relaxed conversation with the American people about who he is and why we have to get rid of the current guy for him. Romney spent $19 million in January and has nothing to show for it, save some puzzling performances before live audiences and media interrogators.

Speaker Newt Gingrich, Sen. Rick Santorum and Congressman Ron Paul do not have the organization, money and good will to run a national campaign for President. No matter how many primaries any of them win, Romney will be the nominee.

But first Romney has to decide whether he will be the candidate or a commentator or a campaign manager. Clearly no one in his campaign is in charge or whoever is in charge cannot reach the candidate and convince him of what he needs to do to put the nomination away and prepare for battle in the fall. Right now, the vendors and consultants are just taking Romney's checks, saying "yes sir," and trying to figure out how to get through the day.

Romney's negative campaign ads are turning off voters, and worse, not driving them to his column. The Republican base is pissed and ready to rumble.  They want someone who is going to, as William Buckley  said -"A Conservative is a fellow who is standing athwart history yelling 'Stop!' "

Republicans want someone to say, as Gingrich did effectively in his debates, that the Obama Administration is destroying our country with statetist, liberal policies that destroy opportunity and rob us of liberty and that he must be stopped by whatever means necessary.

A 59-point economic plan should have been the fist clue where the Romney campaign was headed. Anyone who has taken and sophomore-level political science class knows messaging is based on brevity and clarity.  Romney has finally heard the clarion call for a simple new tax policy. Maybe that's a start but more aggressive thinking and actions are needed. Romney is trying too hard to jam in all the conservative buzz word and sayings, hoping that by doing that, the Republican hard-core will walk away content as to his sincerity.

But all it is doing is making people wonder whether Romney believes in anything - other than being President. Romney must stop using the word "conservative" in describing himself or his policies. By articulating a message that fits the bill, Romney will earn conservative support. It's like someone telling you "I'n tough," only to be knocked out by the first guy who wants to prove you wrong.

For all of his talk and his considerable skills, President Obama has the worst economic record since Herbert Hoover to defend. All the happy talk and number fudging doesn't get away from the reality that millions have left the workforce, that millions of homes are still worth sawdust and that Iran and Israel are soon headed toward a cataclysmic collision.

Mitt Romney has led a good and decent life. He has a strong marriage and family, has donated 14 percent of his income to charity, been a good friend to many, created wealth for many around him without the benefit of a cup of coffee.

Barack Obama is an indignant closet smoker, a guy who hogs the ball in pick up basketball games, who ignores anyone with a different opinion and still quietly rages against those who have obtained success through the free market of risk and reward. Meanwhile, the ranks of those who need federal entitlement programs has soured to record levels. Obama has never received a paycheck not stamped from government or academia and aside from dropping Bin Laden, has a infantile and naive view of the dangers abroad.

Aside from the health care issue where Romney has some exposure, all of the issues line up behind the Republican. Romney will get a lot of money from the Mormon community who will park it in a Super PAC which can compete with Obama's shadow group.

This is all manageable, as they say, but now the candidate has to be managed,

Man of the Year - Gov. Dannel Malloy

Dannel & Cathy Malloy (CT Post)

Few thought Dannel Malloy could make the transition from being a big city Mayor to running a $20 billion operation. In modern times, no one has ever been elected Governor in Connecticut who has come directly from City Hall to the Executive Mansion.

But Malloy did and since then, he has had it his way. Despite all the complaining by Democrats that he doesn't consult them or Republicans who claim he is a bully, Gov. Malloy has rammed through his agenda, leaving his opponents dazed and stupefied.

The Hartford political class is long accustomed to make Governors follow their calendars and schedules. Malloy runs on Malloy time and he has brilliantly distracted the media and politicians with slights on hand when he needs to change the subject.

In an ironic twist, the very trait that many thought would prevent him from succeeding, has provided the path toward rolling over obstacles with impunity.

Mayors are seen as parochial, who often get hives when they physically leave their borders. Mayors also deal with the retail end of politics and don't always gaze at the"big solutions," because they don't have time for such "big thinking" or want to risk rejection from voters who watched every property tax penny. Best to make sure the leaves are picked up and the dump takes old tires if you want to succeed.

Dannel Malloy doesn't avoid conflict, he runs to a fight and usually wins. But when he is faced with something unpleasant, he quickly starts a fire somewhere else and then puts it out.

A few examples of how Gov. Malloy has taken "bait and switch" to a new level:

• Faced with many mouths to feed and no money to pay for those requests. Malloy figured out a way to control the veracity of the actual budget numbers by relying on his budget office (Office of Policy & Management) and ignoring the non-partisan Office of Fiscal Analysis.

• Then, he and the Democrats, without a single Republican vote, simply raised taxes higher in one year than in all previous years dating back to the Charter Oak. Malloy made a few trims along the edges of union contracts and working conditions and declared victory. Malloy now say "we have an honest budget" although there is no independent way to measure it.

• Gov. Malloy claims there is a $110 million surplus. No serious person believes it, but no one has asked the tough questions about the numbers. Budget cuts, the Employee Suggestion Box and other promised savings have yet to be added or subtracted from the state's spread sheet. At the very least, Connecticut is short $500 million.

The state employee unions also play into Malloy's long-term plans to show the nation how a strong governor governs. Having escaped any serious layoffs or cuts in pay, having secured every state jobs for several years along with pension rights and health care benefits, union members still complain that they somehow got shanked by Gov. Malloy during negotiations. Most people would gladly get stabbed to guarantee their jobs regardless of honesty or performance.

Meanwhile, the long-term debt meter continues to spin and spin an spin, nearing $60 billion in unfunded liabilities and making Connecticut near the top nationwide in per capital debt.

• You want jobs? Malloy started handing out millions to companies that threatened to move like CIGNA, or threw $400 million to Jackson Laboratories to bring a research facility to the University of Connecticut Health Care Center. Malloy believes Jackson will create 7,600 over the long-term. There is no way to measure what the long-term means, but if, after 10 years, Jackson doesn't produce 300 direct jobs, the state can say - "oh, well."

• The same can be said of the $815 million 12-mile bus line from New Britain to Hartford, which is paid for with federal and state funds. This project laid in some in-box gathering well-deserved bureaucratic dust when Gov. Malloy saw an opportunity to placate the trade unions and minorities. Rather than apply it to  repairing Metro North rail cars or fix rail beds elsewhere for improved freight hauling, Malloy saw hard hats and rolling stock.

Malloy also saw an easy way to have friendly contractors who will let the Malloy 2014 campaign access to its site when bulldozers are moving earth or cranes are hoisting girders.

• During the disasterous snow storm which knocked power out for a week and a half and caused many residents to consider burning their shingles for heat or breaking into cans of Hormel Chili, Malloy tortured radio listeners with almost hourly update of what service wasn't being restored, to be followed by the hapless Jeff Butler, CEO of Connecticut Light & Power.

Malloy waited several days before deploying the Connecticut National Guard to clear debris. This lack of leadership or his ability to expedite other assistance from neighboring state was over-shadowed by Butler's equal incompetence.

As tempers boiled in frustration from residents, Gov. Malloy cut back on his informational updates and allowed Butler to painfully twist in the winds of public judgment.

When the scandal or ineptitude knocked on his door, Gov. Malloy showed an adept form of side stepping the glare of accountability.

Following Storm Irene, thousands of Connecticut residents took full advantage of sloppy and criminally negligent oversight of a federal program designed to help poor people replace perishables.  But, when over 800 state employees were suspected of joining this free-for-all and grabbing EBT cards that they weren't entitled to,  Malloy held a Sunday press conference to address the problem and then headed to California.

Recently, as workers saw some of their state with-holding often wipe out their earnings due to a software malfunction, Malloy put it on the private contractors for messing up and placed Commissioner of Revenue Services Kevin Sullivan in witness protection to avoid offering an explanation.

But Connecticut is only a stepping stone for the Malloy machine. He isn't waiting for anyone. Malloy has made frequent trips across the country to share his management insights, helps raise money for the Democrat's Governors Association and pops on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," to make nice with Mica Brezinski, a former Connecticut TV reporter.

Dannel Malloy has by an measure made his mark - for good or bad - and for that, he must be given his due. And besides, Gov. Malloy owns a Jack Russell Terrier. That's all you need to know.

Dick's Exploding Cigar

Imagine if Blumenthal had his way during WWII?

U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-CT,  continues to belittle the office he has sought for a lifetime. With western civilization twirling down the toilet, our junior senator continues his half-assed, hypocritical attack on the easiest of targets - the tobacco industry.

The Associated Press took the bait when it noted that Blumenthal, joined by the brain-dead U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-NJ and U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-IL, are asking the sponsors of the Orange Bowl to break its three-year contract with Camacho Cigars. The cigar company will be providing their product in private, repeat, private smoking areas at the stadium.

Let us forget for a moment that the U.S. Constitution protects the sovereignty of contracts, or the wrapper used in these cigars is grown in Connecticut, (good catch Tom Dudchik) and that no one will be blowing cigar smoke into the faces of infants or little old ladies with oxygen tanks during the three hours of gridiron action.

It is more important to review the House of Cards that Blumenthal has quietly built when dealing with the evil Tobacco Industry and why this current move is so ludicrous and typical of this horrible excuse for an elected official.

Back in those halcyon days on the 1990's, when Dick watched the Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore do a majority of the successful legal work against the industry,  he handed out millions of dollars in legal fees to his former law partner - David Golub and another firm with ties to Golub for the biggest payday in trial lawyer history.

"There will be no diving for this cigar."

When the dust had settled, Dick Blumenthal watched the Democrats in the Connecticut Legislature spend  or borrow against the hundreds of millions of dollars in tobacco settlement money to grow the state bureaucracy.  These dollars were in essence, free money and those funds papered over shortfalls, built new programs and put taxpayers on the hook to sustain those expenditures when the tobacco inheritance dried up.

But to save some face, these liberal Democrats who often made pronouncements about "helping the kids" offered nickels and dimes for anti-smoking programs to stop kids from lighting up.

And how did that work out? Smoking by underage children is at a record high in Connecticut. Blumenthal held press conferences of course about it, decrying the lack of resolve and action by Democrats, but everyone got the joke.

A Merry Christmas For the Bureaucrats

Find the State Workers in this EBT Line and Win a Free Gift

During this season of reflection, many of us try and focus on the good that we see in each other - our family, friends, neighbors and fellow citizens. We throw an extra dollar in the Salvation Army bucket or a sawbuck for the newspaper delivery boy. We over-do it with our grandchildren, knowing that we shouldn't, but give way to the spirit of the season.

This year, while many grateful are for their health and the love of their family, a growing percentage of our citizens are mired in worry. Will a job be there next year or can a job be found? Will a parent have to move in because of costs or lack of options for care? How will a high school graduate find the means to higher education?  How much more will we have to pay in taxes? These are all the questions of the day for many of what used to be called the Middle Class.

There are no such fears in the political or government class - for every day is Christmas. For the state employees who pad their pensions with overtime or hazardous duty pay, there is no thought to the impact it has on those who end up carrying those commitments for 20, 30 or 40 years. For the employee who is overweight, a smoker or a drinker, there is free health care -endless supplies of Lipitor - while a taxpayer would be lucky to pay $30 for a month's supply. 

If you work at the University of Connecticut, well, your ship always comes in. Tired of teaching 18 kids at a time? Santa is bringing another 300 professors to Storrs.  The freight for this gift to higher education will be passed to parents in the form of a 28 percent tuition hike over four years.  Those retreating to some of the Branch Universities will likely face a similar fate.

Maybe you are a state worker who works with the poor and indigent. You make a high five figure or low six-figure salary processing claims, keeping the welfare hamster cage running when one day you see a easy way to grab a few hundred dollars. No one will miss it. In fact, this opportunity should be shared with other brothers and sisters in the union - even those who wear a uniform and carry a gun.

In the Legislature, Christmas stockings are always being filled with favors and handouts to people who are unemployable. Only in Connecticut can a part-time job as a Legislator get you full health care benefits and an average salary of $30,000 before you get into mileage or the grand titles that get you another tidy vig. In the State Senate, everyone's a leader. And, only in Connecticut, can 10 years of "service" get you lifetime benefits at little cost.

You can be a spouse or a significant other of a Legislator or staffer and the world is your oyster. Need a gig for the Session or maybe a Task Force? No problem, just be ready to work on a campaign.

The House Democrats lose 15 seats in the 2010 Election, but didn't lose a body. And if you work for House Speaker Chris Donovan, D-Meriden, you can spend your lunch hour making fundraising calls for his Congressional effort to show your appreciation. 

Gov. Dannel Malloy has also been good to those who know their place. He has brought some discipline to the political world simply based on a winter-clear premise - follow his direction or pay the price. It is refreshing that Malloy is capable of delivering coal with a smile on his face.  Aside from Donovan, Malloy has been pretty benevolent, which makes the ungrateful attitude of state employees to their boss so puzzling. Jobs are guaranteed, health care benefits are abundant, pensions with little asked in return.

Yes, it has been a good year for the state employees, their Democrat sponsors in the Legislature and Executive Chambers and the non-profits who employ those who can't get a job with either group. For the rest of us, it's finding loose change in the sofa and asking the newsie if a couple of cookies will make everything square.

UConn's Shameless Appeal for More Tribute

"Resistance is futile!"

After a record tax-increase on Connecticut taxpayers, phony budget numbers that would land a CPA in Leavenworth and welfare fraud perpetuated by those who are supposed to be watching fraud, you might find it difficult to find another depraved example of institutional entitlement.

But then, we have the University of Connecticut to help us see how there is plenty of room for growth in this industry of unaccountability and indifference to the needs of the common folk. Once upon  time,  the goal of UConn was to provide an affordable and vigorous higher education experience for Connecticut residents.  And under Republican and Democrat care, UConn has become a Death Star, consuming and laying waste to every taxpayer and legislator in its path toward the Holy Grail of endless subsidy.

Tuesday, UConn ramped up their public relations campaign to sell another big tuition hike - between five and six percent to pay for more college professors and more bricks and mortar. It's hard to see what piece of grass is left to pave or waterway to suck dry at the Storrs campus. The new UConn President, Susan Herbst, a bright and affable person, told the story of college students weeping in her office over this predicament.

These tuition hikes are need to reduce the teacher to student ratio from 18-1, to 15-1 in the classroom.  Not sure a professor can tell the difference between 18 and 15, or that correcting three more papers or tests is going to cause a work slow down for many of these six-figure professors, but it's still good to plan ahead.

After four billion in tax dollars through UConn 200 and Vision 21st Century, UConn has built itself into a monolith while escaping any serious inspection or oversight.  Meanwhile, the increased tuition costs have made the school unattainable for many Connecticut families.

No act of incompetence or fraud shames the UConn partisans - both elected and appointed.

After $28 million was spent correcting construction of new dormitories to correct 481 code violations 2006, no UConn officials were held accountable. Tuition and fees were used to build the fund to pay  off that foul-up.

And as the big-time college athletic programs fell victim to the predictable scandals of recruitment violations and ethically challenged recruits, UConn supporters simply shrugged and pointed to the National Championship banners and asked Athletic Director Jeff Hathaway to hit the bricks. Hathaway didn't leave because of the violations, but for not vigorously defending Hall of Fame Coach Jim Calhoun in the public eye.

Not one member of the political class seems to care. UConn needs money. Give UConn money and remind the athletic department about those court-side seats at Gampel or the XLcenter.  And more money will be coming with the approval of the Jackson Labs deal at the UConn Medical Center. When all is said and done, or not done - taxpayers will be on the hook for millions in subsidies to support UConn Medical Center, where the 300 research jobs are attained or not. Under any management model, UConn Medical Center would have been closed long ago or sold off to cover its endless deficits. Instead,   the Democrats and some Republicans work out a deal to pay off rival hospitals to keep quiet and nibble at the crumbs of referrals and set asides.

Too bad UConn wasn't a publicly traded stock - I would be long.

Larson's Fear; Occupy Outta Here

If you compare the local version of a national trend, then the Tea Party has it all over the Occupy Wall Street crowd - at least in Hartford. This is quite an accomplishment for during every instance of a Tea Party rally at the State Capitol, thousands turned out for an organized, spirited rally - only to leave in a quiet, orderly manner. Contrast that with the comic rabble that shuffled away in the Tuesday night rain- all six of them - from their off-road colony they had set up near 1-91.

It used to take few hundred people to warrant press coverage for any political rally. If you are a Conservative, Libertarian, Tea Party or Republican leading group, you need thousands to get a paragraph from the establishment Connecticut media. During one rally where there were at least 5,000 people on the north side of the Capitol grounds, reporters couldn't be bothered to look out their fourth-floor office windows to see the Connecticut Tea Party gather.

But all the liberals and unions need are three mutts and a bullhorn and you have lead stories on local television, at 5, 6, and 11 p.m. Such was the case of Occupy Hartford, which collected little interest and intensity over the last two weeks. It's highlight was the arrest of Rhona Cohen, the wife of newly elected New Britain Mayor Tim O'Brien.

When the Tea Party came and left - there was no trash or arrests. The Occupy Hartford crowd managed to unnecessarily snarl rush hour traffic while racking up a sexual assault complaint, assorted drug use and at least one weapon's charge.

The dearth of passion for the Occupy movement is surprising for our capital city,since Hartford is a poverty city, one of the poorest in the country which cherishes in its diversity of entitlement and envy. You would think some of Hartford's non-profit leaders could have gotten away from their six-figure gigs to put a few homeless people, single-mothers, retired gang leaders or those who are looking for another $700 EBT card from the Department of Social Services out for a few hours of marching against "the man."

Other protests around this blue state have been more pathetic - four protesters in Torrington, about a dozen in New Haven even with ready made whiners from Yale and a handful in Old Saybrook. But each of them was dutifully reported by local medias as some seminal event. 

No doubt all Democrats running for Congress this year will employ the "it's us versus the one percent" so the Occupy Movement has done its job of marketing its message. No doubt Congressman John Larson from the 1st District, will be the most bombastic class warrior, which will complete his conversion from a once grounded, thoughtful moderate and modest teacher from East Hartford.

Larson spent Tuesday in Bristol arguing that the current district boundaries make complete sense to him and do not need any adjustment by the courts.  Who can argue? I mean, who wouldn't want to have a fire-proof district that allows him to serve as Nancy Pelosi's butler while his constituents either languishing abject, generational poverty or surrender their wealth to perpetuate a $15 trillion deficit?  The First District allows Larson to set priorities - like millions for his friends to development fuel cells that don't work, $700 million for the famed "bus to nowhere" and the bizarre plan to make the Colt Manufacturing site a national park.

If John Larson were in a remotely competitive district, he would be marking time. Let us hope the courts look at these rorschach-shaped Congressional districts and make cities and towns whole and consistent with their regions.

If you want to share your frustration with Congressman Larson, you can buy a $5,000 ticket from his Synergy PAC and hang out in a box at Fed-Ex Field in Maryland this weekend. That's the freight to watch the New England Patriots play the Washington Redskins. I am sure Good-Time Johnny will regale you with the latest from the Democratic Caucus or offer his side-splitting Marlon Brando imitation.

Rise of Newt Will Help Mitt Focus on Barry

There isn't a conservative Republican I know that wouldn't give a week's pay to watch Newt Gingrich debate Barack Obama. Republicans would cancel summer vacations or call in sick to watch the Newtster expose The One as the poser and destroyer of dreams. Newt would get under Obama's skin and it would take about 40 minutes before we saw the real O - indignant, petulant and pissed off that anyone is smarter - and knows it.

Gingrich is having a good laugh while Mitt Romney continues to hold meetings and come up with new spread sheets and power points. Romney's operation does run like a computer, while Gingrich shuffles along with his wife, a few friends, sleeps in supporter's homes and making it up as he goes along.

Back during the Iowa straw poll this summer, I ran into Gingrich and his wife, Calista, at the Iowa State Fair. He had no staff or handlers. Later, at the airport, we ran into them again. No staff. Little has changed since in terms of structure, save a few long-time supporters. Gingrich will likely outrun his supplies lines.

Meanwhile, Romney looks like a man who can't understand why hungry dogs won't eat his dog food that he has spent millions test-marketing and taste testing. His incredulous manner with Brett Baier of FOX News over his health care plan as Governor of Massachusetts says much about what Romney must overcome to beat President Obama if he becomes the nominee.

After five years, Romney still does not understand messaging and marketing. He still does not grasp that the questions he is getting today will be questions he gets tomorrow through and up to the November, 2012 Election. Many business people who get into politics often resist accepting the sometime bizarre nature of politics. When they get asked a question by a reporter and answer it, they assume the reporter shares it with other reporters and that every voter has read it and checked it off their issue's list.

Romney acted as if Brett Baier hadn't read his 59-point economic plan or understood the complexity of the situation when Massachusetts adopted their state-run, insurance mandated health plan. When Romney signed it, the late Ted Kennedy was there to congratulate him. Romney did not do anything to dispel that image. Now he wants Conservatives to rip their shirts off like they did for Barry Goldwater at the Cow Palace in 1964?

Romney is smart, organized and actually, very personable and funny. But Romney is playing the campaign very safe, thinking that if he doesn't make any mistakes or gaffe's, Barack Obama will lose the Election because this Election is about Barack Obama. Conservatives don't believe in trying to trim along the edges. They, and I include myself in this thinking, think in black and white, good versus evil or light versus darkness.

Barack Obama has taken the country so far away from its founding principles that even moderate people are getting worried and are beginning to see what is going on. Obama still represents a good chunk of the voters who want the government to make things easy for them, wants to grab from some one's pocket or truly believe the government has most of the answers.

If anything, Gingrich will compel Romney to toughen up, to come out from under the soft light and put an edge to his banter. And don't count some other candidates from making a final impression or playing a role down the line.

The Iowa caucus is still wide open and always unpredictable. Congressman Ron Paul is capable of winning that or finishing second. Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum could finish in the top three based on his credentials with social Conservatives. If Romney worse than second and Gingrich comes close in New Hampshire, Gov. Rick Perry (my candidate) could emerge before the fight moves to Florida.

The good news for Romney is this - most people can see him as a President, more than capable of managing a federal bureaucracy, working with legislative leaders and being a solid role model. Elections, though, are about voter intensity and that is where Romney must find his inner Mitt to put the Newt away and get ready for Barry.